Democracy And Politics

How to Calculate Your Win Number?

The importance of GOTV for any political campaign is evident. Find out how Qomon tools help you achieve your objectives in the GOTV operation!

So election day is around the corner, and you’ve been working tirelessly for the past several months. Everything comes down to people coming out to vote. All of those supporters you met and people you convinced? You now have to make sure they get out and vote. Qomon analytics helps you do just that - Get out the Vote!

In this article, you’ll learn how to use Qomon's GOTV tools to help you monitor your win number progress in two steps.

1. Qomon and GOTV

What is GOTV?

GOTV is an effort that political campaigns harness to help increase voter turnout within their supporters.

What do I need to do?

Encourage your volunteers to acquire and mark the “Level of Support” for each contact that they meet on the field  (be it from canvassing, phonebanking, flyer handout, surveys... anything!).

Your volunteers can do this directly on the Qomon app for each and every contact made through any of the actions.

If your contact files already include that information, you can import them to your Qomon space directly and our system will sort them accordingly. That way, all of your contact information is consolidated in one place and you’ll be able to use Qomon’s powerful analytic tools to help you strategize.

To know more about how GOTV is made in Qomon, check out our case study right here.

2. Find out what your win number is and don’t lose sight of it!

Calculating your Win Number

Your win number is exactly what it sounds like: the amount of votes you need to bring it home. Sometimes, a simple majority is all you need: 50% (of votes) + 1 = your win number.

To win by a comfortable margin, though, you’ll want to have a vote goal of 53%+1. Use the following formula to figure out your vote goal.

  1. Find the average turnout of a certain district (e.g. the percentage of voters who usually show up to voting booths)
  2. Multiply the average turnout percentage by the number of registered voters.You'll get your expected turnout (e.g. the number of people who should show up this time around)

We end up with the following formula:

Expected turnout x 53% = vote goal

Okay. Now that you have your win number and vote goal, what’s next?

1 + 2. Combining GOTV indicators and Win Number

Remember how you or your volunteers indicated the level of support for each contact met on the field ? On your Qomon contact database, you’ll be able see all contacts with their level of support registered. This will help you quantify your GOTV reach, and see how many voters you can count on - statistically speaking. Most importantly, you’ll be able to see how it fares against your vote goal!

The Qomon contact database is designed to handle up to millions of supporters.

From here, prioritize voters that need more convincing and make sure to not forget your strong supporters.

Convinced? We are too! Book a demo to explore all the other ways Qomon can help you win your next seat - wether it's at the White House or on a school board. And we all know the school board one is a much more interesting matter.

Frequently Asked Questions

Still have questions?
Contact our experts

What is a vote goal and how do you calculate it?

A vote goal is the number of votes needed to secure victory with a comfortable margin. Multiply the number of registered voters by average turnout percentage to get expected turnout, then multiply expected turnout by 53 percent.

How does GOTV strategy help track voter support?

GOTV efforts have volunteers mark each contact's level of support during Field Actions like canvassing and phone banking. Book a Qomon demo to see how the platform's analytics help you monitor progress toward your vote goal in real time.

What is the level of support metric in voter outreach?

Level of support is a rating volunteers assign to each contact indicating how likely that person is to vote favorably. This data helps campaigns prioritize outreach and focus resources on persuadable voters during Field Actions.

How can I track voter outreach progress for my campaign?

Consolidate all contact data with support levels into one platform, then use analytics to compare confirmed supporters against your vote goal. Discover how with a Qomon demo and see how the contact database handles millions of supporter records.

Why is expected voter turnout important for campaign strategy?

Expected turnout determines how many votes you actually need to secure a seat. By calculating it from historical averages and registered voter counts, campaigns can set realistic vote goals and allocate Field Actions more strategically.